Therapy Analysis - Pharma R&D Annual Review
Late-stage pipeline continues to concern
One thing is for sure: in tough times, understanding your competitors' activity and overall trends in the industry is more vital than ever...So in summary, in a year of mixed statistics on pharma R&D, there is little evidence of a wholesale downturn in pharma R&D to match that which the world at large is experiencing. However, it may be too soon in the cycle for any such macroeconomic factors to have any effect yet, making the prospect of 2010's analysis most intriguing. While the growth in preclinical candidates and in new drug targets is encouraging, it is the late-stage pipeline which is the primary area of concern. Although the pharmaceutical industry must, by the very nature of drug development, take a long-term view, lack of success in the short-term will undoubtedly have a negative effect. The lack of growth in the clinical pipeline, especially at Phase III, is worrisome. Experts have long looked for growth in this area to provide reassurance that the coming years will see a more healthy number of new drugs entering the market. Although the 2009 figures maintain the expansion which was finally seen in the past few years, it might be a concern that the growth rate appears to have almost shrunk to nothing.
One of the key factors which will affect the statistics of R&D over the coming year, perhaps this year more than ever, is mergers. With the two aforementioned mega-mergers pending, many have speculated that economic conditions may precipitate a whole spate of big pharma tie-ups. Many of the big companies facing the so-called 'patent cliff' are viewed as key candidates for company combinations. If such activity does materialise, it will inevitably be followed by pipeline consolidation, which could see the numbers of drugs in late-stage pipelines further stagnate. Whether or not this leads to a better quality and leaner, meaner pipeline is a moot point. One thing is for sure: in tough times, understanding your competitors' activity and overall trends in the industry is more vital than ever.
Ian Lloyd
Editorial Director
Pharmaprojects
As a Pharmaprojects subscriber, you can routinely perform some of the analyses discussed in this article. You can use them to observe trends over time, to keep an eye on competitors, and to aid business decisions. We have also added a fifteenth year of data into the Trends module of Pharmaprojects based on 2009 data to assist you further.
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