Therapy Analysis - Pharma R&D Annual Review
Top companies - mergers set to change the landscape
Next we move to our annual look at the Top 25 companies by size of their R&D pipeline Table 2. This year's table has a degree of comfortable familiarity about it - yet we already know of some pending changes which will markedly affect next year's.
Firstly, GSK remains the biggest company in R&D terms, and despite a slight decline in its overall total, it has almost doubled its lead over its nearest rival. [These figures do not include the additional 16 drugs that the company's recently announced acquisition of Stiefel Laboratories will bring]. However, GSK looks set to surrender its pre-eminent position next year, as by then, Pfizer's acquisition of Wyeth should have completed. This will catapult the combined US company, based on this year's figures, to a slight but significant lead over GSK (275 drugs for Pfizer/Wyeth vs 256 for GSK/Stiefel), although most mergers end up not being additive, as there is not surprisingly considerable post-merger consolidation of the combined pipeline. Interestingly, Pfizer has surrendered its traditional runner-up position this year, and shows a 17% decline in its pipeline size following a year of reprioritization in its pipeline.
This allowed Hoffmann-La Roche to jump up to number 2 following the end of its battle to take full ownership of Genentech, giving Europe a rare 1-2 in the table. The Swiss company would have held its 2008 position of ninth had this not occurred. Next year's top 2 places could well go to the US however, since the other recently announced mega-merger, that of Merck & Co and Schering- Plough, should also have completed by then.
The biggest drop within the Top 10 is seen by Sanofi- Aventis, while Lilly makes a significant entry. It was a good year for Japan, with Takeda just missing out on being the first Japanese company to be one of the largest 10 companies in terms of R&D pipeline size. With the newly merged Kyowa Hakko Kirin being the only entrant to the Top 25, Japan has a record-breaking six companies featuring in the table this year. Overall, the trend seems to be for the biggest companies to have shown slight declines in their pipeline sizes this year, perhaps reflecting the fact that many are focusing their resources on a more strictly-defined list of therapeutic areas.
Despite the fact that the Pfizer/Wyeth and Merck/Schering-Plough deals have triggered speculation that a fresh round of mega-mergers is beginning, the overall number of companies reportedly involved in pharma R&D continues to increase. As Graph 3 indicates, 2009 sees a further 6% on the total, which now stands at 2,084. A smaller rise than in the previous two years perhaps, but nonetheless encouraging in a year in which capital for investments in start-ups must have been harder to come by.
More evidence of expansion at this end of the industry can be seen if we examine the companies at the other end of the chart from the Top 25. There are now 836 companies listed with just one or two drugs in their portfolios, a massive increase from the equivalent figure of 503 seen last year. If we see these small companies as those most likely to be start-ups, this would seem to be indicative of a surprising and very healthy degree of growth in this part of the industry. It also reverses a small decline seen last year, although 2008 was the only year a decline was seen. In total, Pharmaprojects features 515 companies with a single pipeline drug (up from 477 in 2008), and 321 with 2 drugs (up from 267). Maybe in a recession, small really is beautiful?
