Pharma R&D Annual Review 2010
The 2010 pipeline by phase - continued growth at early clinical phases
Turning again to the state of the current pipeline, we see some reasons for cheer, and others for fear. Let us look at the clinical stages of development first. Figures for all Phases are up, which is encouraging given the economic circumstances. The rise at Phase II is not insignificant, at 7.9%. However, two points should be made which might temper our enthusiasm at this point. Firstly, as has been the case every year in the past decade, the increases seen at Phase I and Phase II have not fed through to a significant increase at Phase III. While one would expect considerable attrition between Phase II and Phase III, the fact is that an extra 22 compounds at Phase III, compared to an extra 134 at Phase II, is frankly disappointing. This is better than in some years though, when the Phase III figure remained resolutely flat. However, the increase is exactly cancelled out by fewer drugs at the pre-registration phase. Taken together, this would indicate that any explosion in the number of new launches should not be expected any time soon.
Trends in preclinical drug development are always more difficult to divine. The annual figure is more volatile, and subject to both changes in reporting practices by the industry, as well as editorial practices by the drug database. The drop seen this year might appear concerning, but it is worth pointing out that the 2010 figure is still above that seen in 2008 (not shown), and that the variation is probably not very significant. The fall this year may well be largely due to improved editorial practices here - drug records have been examined more rigorously and more regularly over the past year, with the likely effect that a greater number of preclinical drugs will have been discovered to have been dropped or designated 'No Development Reported'.
